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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although analysts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, political observers suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.