How Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles With Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump said he planned to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs Washington without results
The on-again, off-again summit is another development in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he said.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a history of siding with Israel since his initial presidency, including his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the war any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would approve on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then promoted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The following day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – even land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a truce along present frontlines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that commitment, admitting that ending the hostilities is turning out harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when neither side wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.